UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 — Breakdown and Predictions
The UFC is back in Nevada with the highly anticipated UFC Fight Night 227 event which marks the return of one of the greatest UFC champions in history, Valentina Shevchenko, who will be looking to avenge her loss to the newly crowned flyweight champion Alexa Grasso.
This is an important matchup because it will show us whether Shevchenko is going to continue her dominance, or if the division is ready to enter a new era with new fighters taking over.
The co-main event is set for fireworks with always entertaining Kevin Holland looking to stop the rise of Jack Della Maddalena and his 5 fight undefeated winning streak inside the UFC octagon.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Breakdown and Predictions
On the 4th of March, 2023, Grasso shocked the world by submitting Shevchenko in the fourth round to win the flyweight championship and broke Shevchenko’s five-year dominance.
The two met at UFC 285 and right from the opening round, it was clear that Grasso wasn’t intimidated by Shevchenko’s aura of invisibility, and was there to win. In the first round, she managed to go toe-to-toe with the best and most technical female striker in MMA history,.
Realizing things did not go as planned, Shevchenko quickly made the adjustments after the first round and switched her focus to grappling. She managed to take Grasso down both in the second and third round for over 5 minutes of control time.
However, Grasso wasn’t looking desperate on the bottom. She gave Shevchenko a hard time, constantly being busy with submission attempts. The champion couldn’t get her ground game going. Still, she managed to put Grasso into some bad situations; taking her back multiple times. But the Mexican’s grappling defense was on point that night and the champ looked a bit insecure after awhile.
Up until the last minute of the fourth round, Shevchenko was ahead on the scorecards. Grasso was able to bring the fight to her by focusing on footwork, angles, jabbing her way in, and landing multiple one-two combos down the middle. However, it’s fair to say that the champ was maintaining relative control over the match by landing more significant strikes with 60% accuracy. She put her wrestling to work in the second and third rounds.
She was looking good in the fourth too, so good in fact that she felt comfortable throwing a spinning body kick which allowed Grasso to take her back, set up the rear-naked choke, and force the champ to tap with less than the 30s left on the clock.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Predictions
Grasso is going to be even more confident coming into the rematch because A: she finished one of the most dominant champions and B: she danced with her for three rounds showcasing that she can trade shots on the feet, and get the better of the exchanges on the ground.
The champ is not going to be discouraged either, let’s not forget, Shevchenko was winning the fight on the scorecards, lighting up Grasso with accurate striking, and getting her takedowns without much resistance. We may expect the champ to come into the rematch more disciplined, improved, and focused on not making the same mistakes she did in the first fight.
As a 17-time world champ in Muay Thai, Shevchenko will certainly make the needed adjustments in the standup and try to lead the dance on the feet for as much as she can. If not, she can always rely on her exceptional grappling and physical strength to overwhelm Grasso on the ground.
Considering the durability of Grasso and how good her striking and grappling defense is, it’s likely that Shevchenko is going to edge her in a decision.
Holland vs. Della Maddalena Prediction
UFC’s welterweight division is packed with talented fighters from top to bottom and the matchup between Holland and Maddalena will add yet another name to the mix.
This is a fan-favorite matchup on the card because of how exciting they are to watch; always ready to put on a show. Apart from their entertainment value, Holland and Della Maddalena are both highly skilled strikers and it is going to be beyond interesting to see how these two match stylistically, it’s going to be fireworks, that’s for sure.
Still, both fighters need to be careful because there is a lot on the line. After moving up and down between the divisions, Holland has finally settled in among 170-pounders where in his last two he managed to KO always-tough Santiago Ponzinibbio, and beat Michael Chiesa in his own game by submitting him in the first round. Overall, Holland is on fire, looking better than ever, and after many failed attempts over the years, it seems like he is finally ready to reach the top.
He will have a tough challenge in Jack Della Maddalena. JDM has been perfect inside the octagon since joining a promotion through the Contender Series in 2021. He is coming into this fight on a 5 fight-winning streak,; out of which 4 were finishes. He will likely make it 6 in a row with a decision win over Holland.
Jack Della Maddalena is landing 7.3 strikes per minute on average, much more than Holland (4.1), and is far more disciplined when it comes to defense as he defends 69% of the upcoming strikes, again higher than Holland’s 52%. And on top of that, his takedown defense of 81% will hold on in this matchup.
Other Fights Worth Checking Out
Starting from the prelims, Tracy Cortez is making a highly anticipated return after a 15-month layoff and will square off against another hot prospect in Jasmine Jasudavicius. Cortez is on a 4 fight winning streak so there is a lot of pressure on her to win this fight.
The same stands for Raul Rosas Jr. who received a lot of media attention for being the youngest UFC fighter ever and is now looking to bounce back off the recent loss and show he is good enough to compete with the best.